【广发宏观陈嘉荔】美国通胀数据巩固10月降息预期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the September CPI data in the U.S., highlighting a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is above the previous value of 2.9% but below the expected 3.1%. The core CPI also shows a similar trend, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures influenced by tariffs and energy prices [1][7][20]. CPI Data Summary - The September CPI data was initially scheduled for release on October 15 but was postponed to October 24 due to the government shutdown. However, CPI data remains a priority as it is essential for calculating cost-of-living adjustments for social security [1][6]. - The year-on-year CPI increase of 3% in September reflects a rebound in energy prices, while the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, lower than both the previous value and expectations [7][8]. - Core CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, which is also below both the previous value and expectations [7][20]. Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices showed upward pressure, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the fourth consecutive month of at least 0.2% increase. This reflects the shared burden of new tariffs among businesses, suppliers, and consumers [2][13]. - Specific items affected by tariffs include personal computers (+0.2%), sports goods (+1%), footwear (+0.9%), clothing (+0.7%), and household appliances (+0.8%) [2][13][14]. - Core services prices cooled down, with a core services CPI of 3.5% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, both lower than previous values. Housing costs showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, returning to pre-pandemic levels [3][16][17]. Inflation Trends and Business Responses - Overall, the inflation data for September indicates a moderate recovery, with businesses absorbing some costs from tariffs while also passing on some to consumers. For instance, new car prices increased only 0.8% year-on-year, while used car prices saw a higher increase [4][20][21]. - A survey by the New York Fed indicated that about one-third of manufacturing firms have passed on all tariff costs to customers, while around 45% have only passed on part of the costs, and 25% have absorbed the costs entirely [20][21]. Economic Indicators - The October Markit PMI data showed strong economic expansion, with a composite PMI of 54.8, the highest in six months. The manufacturing PMI was 52.2, and the services PMI was 55.2, indicating robust activity in various sectors [5][22]. - However, consumer confidence slightly declined to 53.6 in October, reflecting concerns over high interest rates and price fatigue [23]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September was reported at 96.7%, reinforcing market expectations of a "soft landing" for the economy. U.S. stock markets saw gains across major indices, with technology stocks leading the rally [5][24][25].