通胀缺乏上行动力——9月美国通胀数据解读【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Core CPI and Inflation Trends - The core CPI year-on-year growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 3% in September, while the overall CPI increased to 3% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.3% [2][4][14] - Energy prices saw a rise, contributing to the overall CPI increase, while core services continued to cool down [4][14] Energy Sector Insights - The year-on-year growth rate of energy CPI rose to 2.8%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, with Brent crude oil averaging $68.2 per barrel in September [5] - Oil prices have been under pressure since October, averaging $64.9 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical developments and economic growth concerns [5] Commodity Inflation Analysis - Core commodity year-on-year growth remained stable at 1.5%, with a slight month-on-month decline [7] - The used car market showed signs of slowing sales, indicating a potential lack of sustained upward pressure on prices [7] Service Sector Performance - Core service year-on-year growth decreased to 3.5%, with housing and transportation services contributing to the decline [10] - Owner's equivalent rent growth fell to 3.8%, suggesting that housing inflation may continue to cool in the coming months [10] Long-term Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations for one year slightly decreased to 4.6%, while five-year expectations rose to 3.9%, indicating ongoing concerns about future inflation risks [12] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the inflation data release, expectations for two more interest rate cuts this year were reinforced, as the overall inflation performance appears moderate and lacks significant upward momentum [14]