热点思考 | 早苗经济学：安倍经济学2.0？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that "Sanae Economics" under Prime Minister Takaiichi is not equivalent to "Abenomics 2.0" due to differing political and economic environments, with a focus on responsible fiscal policy rather than aggressive monetary easing [1][2][9] - Takaiichi's government plans to implement a stimulus package that may raise Japan's fiscal deficit rate from 1.3% in FY2025 to around 2.0% in FY2026, which is higher than France and the UK but lower than the US, Germany, and Greece [2][20][21] - The article highlights that Japan's actual GDP growth is expected to slightly increase to 0.9% in FY2026, driven by fiscal stimulus, with the supplementary budget potentially exceeding last year's 13.9 trillion yen [2][27] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to face pressure to raise interest rates, with market expectations for a 50 basis point increase in 2026, despite Takaiichi's cautious stance on monetary policy [2][45][56] - The article discusses the significant political constraints on Takaiichi's administration, including a lower approval rating and a weaker parliamentary majority compared to Abe's tenure, which may hinder policy implementation [9][17] - The economic environment has changed significantly since Abe's time, with current challenges including rising inflation and a depreciating yen, contrasting with the low inflation and interest rates during Abe's administration [17][47]