申万宏观·周度研究成果（10.18-10.24）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the review of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the prospects for the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of high-quality development, institutional reform, and industrial transformation as key themes for the upcoming planning period [9][10]. Deep Dive Topics - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical phase for consolidating the foundations for achieving the 2035 long-term goals, focusing on high-quality development and economic resilience [9]. - The article highlights the rapid increase in AI capital expenditure in the U.S., questioning whether this trend indicates a bubble and how long the capital expenditure expansion cycle can last [13][14]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" review indicates that significant reforms and modernization efforts are necessary to achieve the goals set for 2035, including a doubling of GDP compared to 2020 levels and a substantial reduction in carbon emissions [10][16]. Hot Topics - The article outlines the expectations for the new "Five-Year Plan," focusing on high-quality development, institutional reforms, and industrial upgrades as the three main lines of action [10][12]. - It discusses the outcomes of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, which emphasizes the need for a robust economic foundation and the importance of maintaining strategic confidence in the face of challenges [16][24]. - The article also addresses the implications of the U.S. government shutdown and its potential impact on global markets, particularly in relation to interest rates and gold prices [20][21]. Economic Insights - The article provides insights into the resilience of the economy in the third quarter, attributing this to both short-term factors and medium-term strengths that support reasonable growth [18][23]. - It notes that the current cycle of AI investment is significantly faster than previous technological revolutions, with AI-related sectors contributing 1.5% to GDP in the current cycle compared to lower percentages in past cycles [14][15].