“金九银十”，寂静的旺季

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" showing almost no activity compared to previous years, indicating a shift in market sentiment and expectations [2][3]. Market Conditions - The recent National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival saw the worst real estate performance in nearly a decade, with developers resorting to various promotions like discounted prices and incentives, but consumer interest remains low [2][3]. - Sales of new homes have seen slight improvements due to aggressive promotions, but the overall market conditions remain poor, with many sales centers also selling second-hand homes [3][4]. Policy Shifts - The focus of government policies has shifted from stimulating transactions to stabilizing expectations and preventing risks, leading to a fundamental change in public perception of real estate [3][4]. - The housing market is now characterized by a high vacancy rate and a slowing economy, which has intensified expectations of falling property prices [5][6]. Housing Demand and Supply - The supply of existing homes has surged, with research indicating that the current stock of housing meets demand, and future housing demand may decrease by 30% over the next decade [4][5]. - The urban housing vacancy rate has reached 16.2%, equating to approximately 390 million urban housing units [4]. Price Trends - In August, the average price of second-hand homes in major cities fell, with first-tier cities experiencing a decline of around 1.0% month-on-month [5][6]. - The continuous decline in property prices has solidified a wait-and-see attitude among potential buyers, with many fearing further depreciation [8][9]. Developer Challenges - Developers are facing significant financial pressures, with companies like Vanke reporting substantial short-term debt that exceeds their cash reserves, raising concerns about their ability to deliver homes [10]. - The risk of delivery failures has become a major concern for buyers, overshadowing price considerations [10]. Market Outlook - Despite recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market, consumer confidence remains low, with many waiting for even lower prices before making purchases [8][10]. - The current market conditions reflect a transition from speculative buying to a more cautious approach, emphasizing the need for patience as the market seeks a new equilibrium [11][12].