“人人都预期”的黄金崩盘发生了，现在人人都等着抄底？

Core Viewpoint - The recent crash in the gold market, with a 6.3% drop marking the largest single-day decline since 2013, was widely anticipated and did not trigger panic among investors, instead sparking a buying frenzy among retail investors [1][3]. Market Reaction - Despite the significant drop, global retail investors rushed to buy gold, viewing the price decline as a buying opportunity, with reports of high demand from dealers in Singapore and the U.S. [7][8][9]. - Analysts generally maintain a positive outlook, considering the price drop a "healthy correction" necessary to clear market excesses and ensure the sustainability of the bull market [10][11]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from MKS Pamp SA and Morgan Stanley suggest that the recent price drop will be absorbed by other buyers, including central banks, leading to limited overall price declines [11]. - The core drivers of the current gold bull market include significant purchases by central banks, concerns over unsustainable sovereign debt levels, and increased participation from retail investors [11]. Contrarian Views - Some analysts, like Michael Hartnett from Bank of America, question the solidity of the "devaluation trade" supporting gold prices, citing factors such as low U.S. Treasury yields, a budget surplus in September, and the resilience of the U.S. dollar index [12][13]. - Even bullish analysts acknowledge risks, including a potential slowdown in central bank purchases, which could impact the bullish outlook for gold [15].