存储的超级周期，还能上车吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant price increase in storage chips, particularly DRAM, driven by the booming demand for AI, leading to a "storage super cycle" [4][8]. Group 1: Storage Chip Market Dynamics - As of October 21, 2023, the average spot price of DRAM:DDR4 (16Gb) has surged by 484% to $18.63 [2]. - The storage chip industry is characterized by cyclical demand and supply, with notable price fluctuations every 3-4 years [5]. - The previous cycle, influenced by the pandemic, ended in September 2023, and a new upcycle has begun due to strong demand for large model training [6][8]. Group 2: Beneficiaries of the Cycle - The primary beneficiaries of the current storage cycle are HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and DRAM, as they are crucial for AI applications [14]. - HBM is a high-end variant of DRAM, offering significantly higher performance and price, with the market expected to reach $50-60 billion by 2026 and potentially $100 billion by 2030 [18][19]. - The shift towards HBM production by major DRAM manufacturers is causing a supply squeeze for traditional DRAM products, leading to price increases [19]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The rising prices of storage chips are favorable for the US and South Korea but pose challenges for China, which relies on imports for advanced memory technologies [20][22]. - The US is pressuring South Korea to restrict HBM exports to China, which could hinder China's AI development [21][22]. - In response, China is accelerating efforts to develop domestic storage chip capabilities and increase the localization rate in key information infrastructure [23][24]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Performance - A comparison of valuations shows that A-share storage companies have significantly higher P/E ratios than their US counterparts, indicating a premium that may not be justified by performance [26][28]. - Despite the price increases, many domestic storage companies have not yet seen corresponding profit growth, suggesting that current stock price increases are driven more by market sentiment than by actual performance [29][32]. - Companies like Changxin Storage are positioned to benefit from the domestic market's shift towards self-sufficiency in DRAM and HBM technologies [33]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that if the storage cycle continues positively, companies like Micron could see their valuations increase significantly, with potential P/E ratios rising to 40 times [41]. - The ongoing demand for AI infrastructure and the potential for extended storage cycles could lead to further optimism in the market, particularly for US storage firms [42][43]. - Overall, the current "super storage cycle" primarily benefits major global players like Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, while Chinese firms are still in the process of catching up [44].