美国通胀或阶段性见顶——美国9月CPI数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that US inflation may have reached a temporary peak, with expectations of a decline in the coming months due to manageable tariff impacts and a stabilizing job market [1][3][13]. Inflation Trends - Over the past six months, US inflation has experienced a slight recovery, with the CPI rising from 3% in January to 3% in September, after a low of 2.3% in April [1][5]. - Core CPI also showed a similar trend, increasing from 2.8% in May to 3% in September [1][5]. Tariff Impact - The price impact of tariffs is relatively controllable, with the effective tariff rate rising from 2.3% to 9.5% between February and July, which is lower than initial market expectations [1][6]. - As of September, the tariff price effect on core goods prices is estimated to be close to 90%, with a potential remaining impact of about 0.5 percentage points on core goods and 0.1 percentage points on overall CPI if tariffs rise to 17% [2][7]. Labor Market Dynamics - The marginal weakening of the job market has prevented a wage-price spiral, with wage growth slowing and rental prices stabilizing around 0.2-0.3% [2][6]. - The rental growth rate has decreased, with primary residence rent rising only 0.2%, the smallest monthly increase since January 2021 [19][22]. Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations remain high in the short and medium term but have decreased compared to earlier in the year, with market pricing for long-term inflation expectations remaining stable or even declining [11][13]. Future Inflation Projections - If US tariff policies do not experience significant fluctuations, inflation is expected to stabilize around 3% in Q4 of this year and decline to approximately 2.5% and 2.8% for CPI and core CPI, respectively, in Q2 of next year [3][13]. Monetary Policy Implications - The controllable impact of tariffs and the peak in inflation may support the Federal Reserve's decision to continue "preemptive" rate cuts, with potential cuts of 25 basis points in October and December [15][25]. - Future rate cuts may slow down if inflation declines at a moderate pace and employment stabilizes [15][25].