Micron Technology(US:MU) 格隆汇APP·2025-10-26 14:03Core Viewpoint - The storage chip sector in the A-share market has experienced a significant surge, with the storage index rising over 60% this year, indicating a historic turnaround in the industry [4][6]. Market Performance - The storage chip sector has seen stocks like Shannon Chip and Puran Co. hit the 20% daily limit, while other stocks in the sector have risen over 10% [5]. - The price of DRAM has skyrocketed, with September prices nearly doubling year-on-year, and certain DDR4 models increasing over 300% since April [9]. Price Trends - The price increase trend is expected to continue into the fourth quarter, with Samsung Electronics notifying clients of price hikes for DRAM (15%-30%) and NAND (5%-10%) [11][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for storage chips has surged due to the expansion of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) driven by AI applications, with AI servers requiring 8-10 times more storage than traditional servers [14]. - HBM's profit margins are significantly higher (50%-60%) compared to traditional DRAM (30%-40%), prompting manufacturers to shift production towards HBM and DDR5 [15]. Production Capacity Shift - The production capacity for HBM consumes over three times the wafer capacity of standard DRAM, leading to a squeeze in traditional DRAM supply [17]. - Major manufacturers are strategically reducing DDR4 production, with plans to cease production entirely by 2026 [28]. Inventory Levels - The average inventory for DRAM has dropped to just 8 weeks, significantly below the healthy level of 10-12 weeks, indicating a tightening supply [20][21]. Future Outlook - The current market dynamics suggest a structural supply shortage rather than a temporary spike in demand, making it unlikely for manufacturers to revert to DDR3/DDR4 production in the short term [22][23]. - The long-term production cycle for new capacity means that even if new facilities are built, they will not alleviate current shortages quickly [25]. Conclusion - The storage industry is undergoing an irreversible capacity shift, with AI demand and production constraints driving prices higher, making it difficult for the market to cool down in the near term [27].