傅里叶的猫·2025-10-26 14:21Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the U.S. power generation landscape, highlighting the transition towards natural gas and renewable energy sources, and the implications for the semiconductor and AI industries, particularly in relation to solid-state transformers (SST) [3][9][16]. U.S. Power Generation Status - The U.S. power generation structure is shifting towards natural gas and renewable energy, with solar and battery storage growing rapidly [9]. - As of the end of 2024, coal-fired power generation capacity is projected to be 188.95 GW, down from 314 GW in 2011, indicating a significant decline in the coal industry [10]. - Natural gas generation capacity is expected to reach 571.23 GW by 2024, constituting 43.12% of the total capacity, but new installations are limited due to supply chain issues [11]. - Nuclear power capacity stands at 103.58 GW, with a 2.9% year-on-year increase, but new nuclear plants have not been built in nearly 40 years [12][13]. - Renewable energy capacity is projected to reach 313 GW by the end of 2024, with wind and solar accounting for 80% of new installations, although their effective contribution is limited compared to traditional power sources [14][15]. SST Industry Development Trends - The demand for solid-state transformers (SST) is increasing as they address the challenges faced by data centers, particularly in reducing power consumption and space [16]. - The SST market is currently dominated by non-mainland manufacturers, with companies like Eaton and Delta leading the way [17]. - The estimated market size for SST in North America from 2026 to 2030 is projected to grow significantly, reaching 265 billion RMB by 2030 [18]. Valuation Analysis - The SST industry is expected to have a net profit margin of around 30-40% from 2026 to 2030, with projected net profits increasing from 6.4 billion RMB in 2026 to 79.5 billion RMB in 2030 [19]. - The estimated market capitalization for the SST industry could reach up to 1.59 trillion RMB by 2030, based on average valuation multiples [19]. A-Share Core Company Valuation - Companies like Jinqiao Technology and Kingpan Technology are positioned to benefit from the SST market, with projected net profits of over 8 billion RMB and 17 billion RMB respectively by 2027 [21][23].