中金：日本居民当年为何没入市？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the narrative of "deposit migration" in China, where residents are shifting funds from low-return deposits to higher-return investments like stocks, potentially creating a positive feedback loop that could stimulate consumption and domestic demand [2][4]. Group 1: Deposit Migration and Wealth Effect - In July and August, there was a notable decrease of 1.3 trillion yuan in residents' demand deposits, while non-bank deposits increased by 3.3 trillion yuan, indicating a possible flow of funds into capital markets [4]. - The M1 money supply has been rising, suggesting that previously fixed-term deposits are being "activated" and could be available for market entry [4]. - Despite the activation of deposits, the speed of market entry has slowed, as evidenced by a 1 trillion yuan decrease in non-bank deposits in September [4]. Group 2: Consumption and Market Participation - The wealth effect has not yet materialized, as consumption during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival was weaker than expected, with key retail and catering enterprises reporting only a 2.7% year-on-year increase in sales [5]. - The number of new A-share accounts opened from June to September increased from 1.65 million to 2.94 million, but this is still significantly lower than the peak of 6.85 million in October of the previous year [5]. Group 3: Lessons from Japan's 1990s - The article draws parallels between the current low-interest environment in China and Japan's experience in the 1990s, where despite low returns, residents did not significantly increase their stock market participation [12][27]. - In Japan, even during three bull markets in the 1990s, the proportion of household financial assets allocated to stocks did not increase, indicating a lack of sustained market engagement [13][14]. Group 4: Factors Affecting Market Participation - The article identifies three main pressures that affected Japanese residents' willingness to invest in the stock market: declining income expectations, high precautionary savings, and rising debt burdens [27][28]. - Declining income expectations were driven by a challenging job market and stagnant wages, leading to reduced risk tolerance among residents [28][29]. - High precautionary savings were influenced by concerns over the sustainability of Japan's public pension system, prompting residents to favor low-risk assets [37][38]. - Rising debt burdens, particularly from housing loans, further constrained residents' ability and willingness to invest in stocks [44][46]. Group 5: Implications for China - The article suggests that for "deposit migration" and the wealth effect to be sustainable in China, policies should focus on improving income expectations, enhancing the pension system, and alleviating debt burdens [51][52]. - Recent government initiatives aimed at promoting quality employment and strengthening labor protections are seen as steps in the right direction [52][55]. - Continued efforts to develop a robust pension system could reduce residents' precautionary savings and encourage more investment in the stock market [53][54].