中金：通胀温和支持美联储继续降息

Core Viewpoint - The inflation data for September in the U.S. is relatively mild, supporting the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in October and December, with expectations of a 25 basis point reduction in each month [2][5]. Inflation Data Summary - The overall CPI in September increased by 0.3% month-on-month and reached a year-on-year growth of 3.0%, while the core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and also increased by 3.0% year-on-year, which is below market expectations [2][6]. - The energy price index adjusted for seasonality rose by 1.5% month-on-month, primarily driven by a 4.1% increase in gasoline prices, although global oil and gasoline prices have shown a downward trend since October [2][6]. Core CPI Components - The core CPI year-on-year growth of 3% in September slightly decreased from 3.1% in August, with rent and used car prices showing significant weakness, indicating a decline in demand [3][5]. - Owner's equivalent rent (OER) increased by only 0.1% month-on-month, the lowest monthly increase since January 2021, while primary residence rent rose by 0.2% [3][9]. Impact of Tariffs - Prices of goods affected by tariffs showed mixed results, with clothing (+0.7%), furniture (+0.9%), appliances (+0.8%), and entertainment items (+0.4%) increasing, indicating that the market is gradually absorbing tariff costs [4][5]. - However, electronic devices, particularly mobile phones, saw a significant price drop of 2.2%. The overall core goods prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of 1.5% [4][5]. Service Inflation - Service inflation remains robust, with the core services price excluding rent rising by 0.4% month-on-month, and the three-month annualized growth rate increasing to 4.7% [5][11]. - Airfare prices increased by 2.7%, reflecting improved demand for air travel, while other services such as medical (+0.3%), entertainment (+0.4%), and childcare (+1.7%) also maintained price stability [5][11]. Long-term Inflation Outlook - In the medium term, inflation is expected to stabilize around 3%, showing stronger persistence compared to the significant increases seen in 2021. Despite the September inflation data being below market expectations, both core and overall CPI year-on-year growth rates have returned to above 3% [6][8].