机构研究周报：AH股指还有新高，黄金短期性价比不高

Core Viewpoints - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality economic development, focusing on technology and consumption, which is expected to drive further growth in the Chinese stock market, particularly in the A and H shares [3][5]. Economic Development Goals - The main goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" include significant improvements in high-quality development, technological self-reliance, deepening reforms, enhancing social civilization, improving living standards, and advancing ecological progress [3]. - The transition from quantity to quality in economic growth is crucial during this period, allowing for structural reforms and a shift in growth drivers from solely GDP to a combination of actual GDP, inflation, and exchange rates [3]. Equity Market Insights - Guotai Junan Securities predicts that the "transformation bull market" in China will deepen, with a focus on advanced manufacturing, export-oriented industries, and consumer sectors [5]. - Goldman Sachs indicates that a "slow bull market" is forming in the Chinese stock market, with a potential 30% increase in key indices by the end of 2027, driven by profit growth and valuation recovery [6]. - Bosera Fund highlights that the recent rise in the Shanghai Composite Index reflects positive market sentiment and structural adjustments, suggesting a "steady foundation with moderate aggression" investment strategy [7]. Asset Performance Overview - The performance of major asset classes shows that the A-share market has seen significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 17.86% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Index has increased by 30.41% [8]. - Gold prices are expected to enter a high volatility range, with analysts suggesting that it is no longer a high-value global asset, and a price range of $3,800 to $3,900 per ounce is seen as a fundamental support area [18]. Macro and Fixed Income - Guohai Franklin Templeton Fund anticipates a volatile bond market, with potential for continued interest rate cuts and a generally positive monetary policy environment [16]. - Bosera Fund expects monetary policy to accelerate easing, particularly if the Federal Reserve continues to lower rates, which would favor the bond market [17]. Asset Allocation Strategies - Guotai Asset Management suggests a "technology growth + high dividend" strategy for A-shares, focusing on sectors with global competitiveness like AI and semiconductors, while also including high-dividend assets for stability [20].