【银行】重点领域景气度高，居民贷款增长承压——2025年3季度央行贷款投向点（王一峰/赵晨阳）

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported a decrease in new RMB loans for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a slowdown in credit growth and highlighting the ongoing challenges in the real estate sector and consumer lending [6]. Group 1: Corporate Loans - Corporate loans continue to act as a stabilizing force, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% as of Q3, despite a slight decline from the previous quarter [7] - New corporate loans in Q3 amounted to 1.83 trillion RMB, accounting for 100% of all new loans, with significant contributions from manufacturing, technology, and green sectors [7] - The manufacturing sector maintains a high level of loan issuance, while technology loans continue to grow at double-digit rates, and green loans remain strong, particularly in infrastructure upgrades and clean energy [7] Group 2: Real Estate Loans - Real estate loans experienced a negative growth of 0.1% year-on-year, with a total balance of 52.8 trillion RMB as of Q3, reflecting a decline of 800 billion RMB in the first three quarters [8] - The Q3 single-quarter real estate loan reduction was 500 billion RMB, indicating increased early repayment pressures [8] - The outlook for the real estate market remains uncertain, with potential for further declines in mortgage loans unless supportive policies are implemented [8] Group 3: Household Loans - Household loans grew by 2.3% year-on-year as of Q3, with a total increase of 1.1 trillion RMB in the first three quarters, but a decline of 700 billion RMB in Q3 alone [9] - Business loans are a key driver of credit expansion for households, while non-housing consumer loans are under pressure [9] - The impact of fiscal incentives for consumer and business loans remains uncertain, with seasonal factors influencing retail loan issuance in September [9]