Group 1: Major Asset Classes & Overseas Events & Data - Equity assets have risen across the board, while gold prices have significantly corrected. The S&P 500 increased by 1.9%, and the Nasdaq index rose by 2.3% [1][3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained flat at 4.02%, while the dollar index rebounded by 0.4% to 98.9. Offshore RMB slightly appreciated to 7.13 [1][3] - WTI crude oil surged by 6.9% to $61.5 per barrel, while COMEX gold plummeted by 3.1% to $4104.2 per ounce [1][33] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. September CPI was weaker than market expectations, with the core CPI rising only 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%. Employment remains a key concern for future Fed rate cuts [1][65][66] - The Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for October rose to 52.2 and 55.2, respectively, indicating stronger performance compared to Europe, Japan, and the UK [1][76] Group 3: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The U.S. has initiated a 301 investigation into the Phase One trade agreement with China, examining compliance with the agreement [1][48] - A meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese officials is scheduled for October 30 in South Korea [1][48] Group 4: U.S. Fiscal Deficit - As of October 23, the cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2025 reached $1.38 trillion, with total expenditures at $6.59 trillion and total tax revenues at $4.16 trillion [1][51] Group 5: Federal Reserve Outlook - The market anticipates two rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 and three in 2026, influenced by the weaker-than-expected CPI data [1][60] - The upcoming Fed meeting on October 29 is being closely monitored for potential rate changes [1][60] Group 6: Commodity Prices - Most commodity prices have increased, with WTI crude oil up by 6.9% and Brent crude by 7.6%. However, precious metals like gold and silver have seen declines of 3.1% and 4.4%, respectively [1][33][39]
海外高频 | 黄金价格大幅回调，美国9月CPI弱于市场预期 （申万宏观·赵伟团队）
赵伟宏观探索·2025-10-26 16:03