热点思考 | 早苗经济学：安倍经济学2.0？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that "Sanae Economics" proposed by newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is not equivalent to "Abenomics 2.0" due to differing political and economic environments, with a focus on responsible fiscal policy rather than aggressive monetary easing [1][2][9] - Takaichi's economic policy emphasizes proactive fiscal measures, contrasting with Abenomics which prioritized monetary easing to combat deflation. The new approach aims to address inflation while maintaining financial stability [6][17] - Takaichi's government faces significant political constraints, including a lower parliamentary majority and lower public support compared to Abe, which may hinder the implementation of her policies [9][17] Group 2 - Japan's fiscal deficit is projected to rise from 1.3% in FY2025 to around 2.0% in FY2026, indicating a more expansionary fiscal stance compared to other developed economies [20][21] - The expected economic growth rate for Japan is forecasted to slightly increase to 0.9% in FY2026, driven by fiscal stimulus measures, with the supplementary budget potentially exceeding last year's 13.9 trillion yen [27][21] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to lag in raising interest rates, with market expectations for a 50 basis point increase in 2026, influenced by inflation and currency depreciation pressures [45][47] Group 3 - Takaichi's government plans to implement a comprehensive stimulus package, including energy subsidies and tax relief measures, to support households and businesses amid rising costs [20][21] - The fiscal measures are expected to have a modest impact on GDP growth, with an estimated contribution of around 0.25% from the supplementary budget [27][21] - Japan's debt situation remains manageable, with a high debt-to-GDP ratio but low interest payment pressures due to a long debt duration and low foreign debt exposure [36][21]