Micron Technology(US:MU) 投中网·2025-10-27 06:47Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current surge in storage chip prices driven by the booming demand for AI, indicating the onset of a "storage super cycle" that could present significant investment opportunities in the semiconductor sector [4][5][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of October 21, 2023, the average spot price of DRAM:DDR4 has increased by 484%, reaching $18.63 [4]. - The storage chip industry operates in a cyclical manner, with demand and prices typically experiencing a clear "up to down" rotation every 3-4 years [6][10]. - The last cycle, triggered by the pandemic, ended in September 2023, but a new upturn has begun due to strong demand for large model training in AI [8][10]. Group 2: Key Beneficiaries - The primary beneficiaries of the current storage cycle are HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and DRAM, as they are directly linked to processors and essential for AI applications [16][17]. - HBM is expected to see significant market growth, with projections estimating the market size to reach $50-60 billion by 2026 and potentially $100 billion by 2030 [21]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The rising prices of storage chips are favorable for the US and South Korea but pose challenges for China, which relies heavily on imports from the three major DRAM manufacturers: Micron (US), Samsung, and SK Hynix (South Korea) [24][25]. - The US is pressuring South Korea to restrict HBM exports to China, which could hinder China's AI development [25][26]. Group 4: Domestic Market Developments - China is accelerating efforts to develop domestic storage chip capabilities, with policies favoring local manufacturers and aiming for over 70% localization in key information infrastructure by 2025 [28]. - Companies like Changxin Memory are expected to play a crucial role in the domestic market, with plans for an IPO and advancements in HBM technology [39]. Group 5: Valuation Insights - Despite the high valuations of domestic storage companies in A-shares, many still face technical gaps compared to their overseas counterparts, limiting their ability to capitalize on high-margin HBM products [33][34]. - The article notes that some domestic firms have not yet seen profit increases despite rising storage prices, indicating that current stock price increases are largely driven by narratives around domestic substitution rather than actual performance [34][35]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The article suggests that if the storage cycle extends beyond 2026, companies like Micron could see significant valuation increases, with potential P/E ratios rising to 40 times under optimistic scenarios [48]. - Conversely, if demand falls short, valuations could drop significantly, highlighting the volatility and uncertainty in the semiconductor market [48][49].