【招银研究】海外降息预期强化，国内市场情绪升温——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2025.10.27-10.31）

Group 1: U.S. Macro Strategy - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in both October and December meetings, bringing the year-end policy rate to a range of 3.5-3.75% [2] - September's U.S. CPI data was weaker than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, indicating short-term inflation concerns may be alleviated [2] - The U.S. economy is facing downward pressure, with a significant tightening in fiscal stance reflected in a surplus of $25.4 billion for week 42, compared to the same period last year [3] Group 2: U.S. Equity Market - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.9% last week, supported by strong corporate earnings and the expectation of continued rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3] - Despite the current resilience in the U.S. stock market, uncertainties are rising, with high valuations primarily driven by AI narratives and tech giants' earnings [3] - The risk premium in the U.S. stock market is low, which may not align with potential credit and geopolitical risks [3] Group 3: U.S. Debt Market - Due to lower-than-expected inflation, expectations for rate cuts have strengthened, leading to a forecasted decline in U.S. Treasury yields [4] - The long-term interest rates face pressure from concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and the independence of the Federal Reserve, limiting their downward potential [4] Group 4: Chinese Macro Strategy - High-frequency data indicates a contraction in durable goods consumption and real estate transactions, with new home sales in 30 major cities down by 23.6% year-on-year [7] - Industrial enterprise profit growth accelerated to 21.6% year-on-year in September, supported by low base effects and recovery in upstream product prices [8] - Exports are expected to remain stable in October, with positive signals from recent U.S.-China trade discussions [9] Group 5: Chinese Equity Market - The A-share market saw a 2.9% increase last week, driven by liquidity support and stable economic fundamentals [11] - Growth and small-cap stocks are expected to outperform, with technology sectors showing high investment interest [11] - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded by 3.6%, benefiting from improved U.S.-China trade relations and favorable policies for the technology sector [12]