IMF警告：美国债务率将飙破143%！

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's debt burden is accelerating, projected to surpass that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century, with total debt as a percentage of GDP expected to reach 143.4% by 2030, marking a significant increase of over 20 percentage points from current levels [1][3]. Debt Trajectory - By 2030, the debt-to-GDP ratio for Italy and Greece is expected to decline, while the U.S. ratio will continue to rise, indicating a long-term trend of increasing debt in the U.S. as per the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) [2][3]. - The IMF predicts that the U.S. budget deficit will remain above 7% of GDP annually until 2030, making it the highest among all wealthy nations tracked by the IMF [1]. Political and Economic Context - The Biden administration has seen a rapid expansion of the federal deficit, with limited progress made during the Trump administration to address the issue [3][4]. - Political dynamics in the U.S. complicate efforts to reduce the deficit, as both major parties are resistant to significant changes in spending or taxation [4]. Italy's Fiscal Discipline - Italy is recognized for its efforts to control budget deficits, with a projected fiscal deficit of 3% of GDP this year, down from 8.1% when the current government took office [6]. - The Italian government is expected to achieve a primary surplus of 0.9% of GDP, exceeding initial forecasts [6]. Sustainability Concerns - Despite the U.S. having a lower net government debt level compared to Italy, concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy are growing due to the rising debt trajectory [7]. - Analysts emphasize that any predictions regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal conditions must consider various economic factors, including productivity growth and tax revenues [7].