国泰海通｜煤炭：煤炭板块周期底部确认，多因素共振供需逆转

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has confirmed its cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in the supply-demand pattern and sufficient release of downside risks [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Short-term supply and demand factors have led to an unexpected rise in coal prices, which exceeded 770 RMB/ton as of last week, marking a significant upward trend since September 15 [2] - The coal supply has contracted significantly due to government intervention against "involution," with national production figures for July to September at 380 million, 390 million, and 410 million tons, showing a year-on-year decline [2] - Demand has rebounded sharply, with total electricity consumption growth reaching 4.6% in August and September, compared to only 2.5% in Q1, and is expected to exceed 5% for the year [2] Price Trends - As of October 24, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 778 RMB/ton, reflecting a 4.7% increase from the previous week [3] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1740 RMB/ton, up 3% week-on-week, indicating a rebound in both futures and spot markets [3] Industry Review - As of October 24, 2025, the price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1740 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 3%, while the inventory of coking coal across three ports decreased by 7.7% [4] - The offshore price of Newcastle Q5500 coal rose by 2 USD/ton, while the cost of domestic coal remains lower than that of imported coal by 10 RMB/ton [4]