国泰海通｜建材：水泥出海国别研究之南非

Economic Overview - South Africa's economic development is stagnant, but the country has a friendly foreign exchange environment and stable cement demand at around 12 million tons [2] - The financial sector is well-developed, and the country has abundant mineral resources and sufficient foreign exchange reserves [2] Supply and Demand - The supply structure is acceptable, with six major cement companies; PPC holds a 35% market share, while Huaxin Cement ranks fourth with a 13% share [3] - Cement demand has remained stable over the years, with no significant increase in production capacity, and even a decrease in active capacity [3] Import Impact - South Africa's cement imports are significant, projected at 1.69 million tons in 2024, with 88% sourced from Vietnam and 76% entering through Durban [4] Profitability - The ex-factory price of Dangote cement in South Africa is around $65 per ton, with high transportation costs leading to low profitability for PPC and Dangote [5] - There is potential for profitability improvement through policy measures to restrict imports and enhance domestic transportation conditions, as well as technological advancements to reduce costs [5] Carbon Tax Considerations - The imposition of a carbon tax in South Africa necessitates monitoring of its impact on policies and profitability [6]