国泰海通｜交运：快递量持续较快增长，反内卷开启盈利修复

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain resilient growth in business volume, driven by the ongoing trend of small parcelization and the release of consumption potential in lower-tier markets [1][2]. Group 1: Business Volume and Trends - By August 2025, the cumulative express delivery volume reached 128.2 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.8% (on a comparable basis), indicating a counter-cyclical growth trend [1]. - The small parcelization trend continues, with expectations for resilient growth in business volume in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, particularly in the central and western regions and rural areas [1]. Group 2: Pricing and Revenue - From January to August 2025, the average revenue per express delivery ticket was 7.48 yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, but the decline has narrowed compared to the 12.3% drop at the end of 2024, suggesting a stabilization in pricing due to anti-involution policies [1]. - The anti-involution policies have spread nationwide, significantly improving the single-ticket revenue for companies and indicating a potential recovery in profitability for e-commerce express delivery firms in the latter half of the year and next year [2]. Group 3: Cost Dynamics - The scale effect is diminishing under the trend of small parcelization, leading to a slowdown in the decline of core costs per ticket. The cost reduction potential for transportation and transfer is narrowing [1]. - The introduction of unmanned vehicles is expected to open up cost reduction opportunities in last-mile delivery, although new social security regulations may lead to a short-term increase in costs per ticket [1].