国泰海通 · 晨报1028｜纺服、轻工

Group 1: Luxury Goods Industry - The luxury goods sector in Q3 2025 showed better-than-expected performance, particularly in North America, with a slight improvement in consumption in mainland China [3][4] - Major brands like LVMH, Hermès, KERING, and PRADA reported revenue changes of +1.0%, +9.6%, -5.0%, and +8.5% respectively, all exceeding consensus expectations [3] - Miu Miu led the industry with a 29% revenue increase, while Hermès maintained a steady growth trend with a 9.6% increase [3] Group 2: Retail Performance in China - In September, China's retail sales for clothing and textiles grew by 4.7% month-on-month, indicating a faster pace compared to August [5] - The online retail sales of clothing items increased by 2.8% year-on-year from January to September, showing an acceleration in growth [5] - The export of Swiss watches showed a month-on-month improvement, with a 17.8% increase in exports to China, recovering from a significant decline in the previous year [5] Group 3: Adidas and Deckers Financial Guidance - Adidas reported Q3 revenue of €6.63 billion, with a neutral year-on-year growth of 8%, but raised its full-year revenue guidance to a neutral growth of 9%, below the consensus of 10% [4] - Deckers' FY26 Q2 revenue was $1.43 billion, a 9% year-on-year increase, but its full-year guidance of $5.35 billion fell short of the consensus expectation of $5.45 billion [4] - Deckers anticipates that tariff impacts will become more pronounced in the second half of FY26, affecting consumer attitudes [4] Group 4: Tobacco Industry Trends - The new type of oral tobacco products, combining heated non-combustible and vaporized electronic cigarette characteristics, is gaining popularity globally [10] - The market for new oral tobacco products is expected to grow due to lower tax rates and less intense competition compared to vaporized electronic cigarettes [10][11] - PMI's $16 billion acquisition of ZYN's parent company and the FDA's approval of ZYN products are expected to catalyze industry growth [12]