就差1个点！4000点！由“谁”来攻破？……

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise of the Shanghai Composite Index, which reached a nearly ten-year high of 3999 points, and speculates on the implications of potentially surpassing the 4000-point mark, suggesting that the current market dynamics differ significantly from previous instances in 2007, 2008, and 2015 [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The current market structure is characterized by a significant presence of institutional investors, with the penetration rate of five major institutions (public active, public passive, insurance funds, northbound funds, and private equity) exceeding 40% of the A-share market, contrasting sharply with the retail-driven market of the past [8]. - The article emphasizes that the sustainability of a rise above 4000 points will depend not only on retail investor behavior but also on institutional acceptance of current valuations [8]. Key Factors for Market Stability - The article identifies two critical factors for the market's stability if it surpasses 4000 points: the leading sectors driving the market and the maintenance of trading volume. A rise led by cyclical sectors like finance, real estate, or consumption, with technology stocks stabilizing, is seen as more sustainable [9]. - The trading volume has recently returned to 2.4 trillion, which is viewed positively for further index increases. Sustained trading volume is essential for market momentum, as it indicates active participation and support from investors [10]. Volume Analysis - The article suggests monitoring the average daily trading volume over a week, aiming for a recovery to around 2.5 trillion, to ensure a solid foundation for any upward movement in the index. A stable trading volume is deemed more critical than merely reaching the 4000-point threshold [10].