美股研究社·2025-10-27 11:43Core Viewpoint - Large investors are cautiously revisiting strategies from the late 1990s amid the AI frenzy, balancing the risks of a potential bubble with the desire to capitalize on growth opportunities in the AI ecosystem [2][5]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Strategies - The market is experiencing a surge, with AI chip giant Nvidia's market capitalization exceeding $4 trillion, leading to concerns among professional investors about irrational exuberance [2]. - Francesco Sandrini from Amundi highlights signs of non-rational exuberance similar to the late 1990s, such as unusual activity in risk options related to major AI stocks [2]. - Investors are shifting funds from "Mag7" giants to seek growth in relatively undervalued sectors like software, robotics, and Asian tech companies [2][5]. Group 2: Historical Context and Lessons - Historical analysis shows that some hedge funds successfully navigated the internet bubble from 1998 to 2000 using flexible rotation strategies, outperforming the market by approximately 4.5% per quarter [5]. - Simon Edelsten notes that the current market environment resembles 1999, suggesting that the next phase of the AI boom will extend beyond major players like Nvidia and Microsoft to related industries [5]. Group 3: Investment Logic and Opportunities - Investors are adopting a "sell shovels" approach, focusing on benefiting from the massive investments in AI data centers and advanced chips rather than directly investing in the major tech companies [7]. - Investment managers are favoring IT consulting firms and companies like Kaden Precision, which supplies components to AI chip manufacturers, as potential beneficiaries of the AI boom [8]. Group 4: Bubble Concerns and Diversification - Despite strong earnings backing major AI stocks, some investors are wary of the elements of a bubble, particularly the risk of overcapacity in data center construction reminiscent of the telecom industry's fiber optic boom [9]. - Arun Sai from Pictet Asset Management suggests diversifying into Chinese stocks as a hedge against potential declines in U.S. AI enthusiasm, while Oliver Blackbourn from Janus Henderson is using European and healthcare assets to mitigate risks associated with U.S. tech stocks [9].