热点思考 | 投资“失速”的真相？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in fixed asset investment in China since the second half of 2025, highlighting a broad downturn across various sectors including infrastructure, services, real estate, and manufacturing [1][10][19]. Investment Growth Decline - Fixed asset investment growth has dropped sharply by 9.1 percentage points to -6.5% in September 2025, marking a five-year low. The actual investment growth, excluding price disturbances, fell by 7.8 percentage points to -4.1% [1][10]. - Investment in broad infrastructure, services, real estate, and manufacturing has all seen declines, with respective drops of 13.1, 11.1, 9.3, and 9.1 percentage points [1][10][19]. - Specific sectors like major projects, consumer infrastructure, and manufacturing have also experienced notable declines, with infrastructure investments in IT services, public utilities, and facility management dropping around 20 percentage points [1][12]. Reasons for Investment Slowdown - The primary reason for the investment slowdown is the acceleration of debt resolution, which has occupied investment funds, explaining over half of the investment decline. The Ministry of Finance allocated 800 billion for special refinancing bonds, with issuance rising to 1.2 trillion since June, reducing available government investment funds [2][29]. - Companies have been increasing investments through debt, but the current push for debt repayment has led to a reduction in available funds for new investments. This has particularly affected state-owned enterprises, which are under pressure to clear debts more quickly [3][40]. - A lack of new projects has also contributed to the investment decline, with new and expansion projects seeing significant drops in growth rates, while renovation projects maintain a higher growth rate [4][44]. Policy Optimization Impact - Historical data suggests that debt issues can significantly constrain corporate cash flow and economic performance. The proportion of accounts receivable has risen to around 15%, with private enterprises having the highest share [5][53]. - The ongoing debt resolution process may improve corporate cash flow, potentially restoring economic momentum. Recent data shows a decline in accounts receivable growth for both private and state-owned enterprises, which could alleviate the "triangle debt" issue [5][60]. - Recent fiscal measures have introduced new funding aimed at addressing the investment decline, particularly in economically significant provinces. The central government has allocated 500 billion for local debt resolution and project construction, which may help mitigate the investment downturn [6][66].