数据点评 | 9月利润再度上行，如何理解？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoints - In September, industrial enterprises' profits continued to rise, primarily driven by low base effects and short-term factors, but when adjusted for these factors, the profit performance was weaker than in previous years [2][8] - The cumulative revenue of industrial enterprises in September showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while profits increased by 3.2% [7][90] Revenue - In September, nominal revenue for industrial enterprises improved, with all three major industrial chains showing revenue recovery. The Producer Price Index (PPI) marginally improved, leading to a nominal revenue increase [16][91] - The actual revenue growth rate, adjusted for price changes, rose by 0.2 percentage points to 5.4%, contributing to a 0.3 percentage point increase in profit year-on-year [16][91] Costs - Industrial enterprises faced increasing cost pressures in September, with cost rates in the metallurgical and consumer chains remaining at historically high levels. The overall cost rate was 85.4%, indicating significant cost pressure on profits [22][91] - The cost rate for the metallurgical chain was 86.5%, and for the consumer manufacturing chain, it was 83.9%, both higher than the previous year [22][91] Industry Performance - Industries such as computer communication and automotive saw significant profit recovery, contributing 3.5 and 2.8 percentage points to overall profit growth, respectively [33][92] - Despite revenue improvements in these sectors, cost pressures remained high, with operating costs for the automotive and computer communication sectors rising by 4% and 3.8%, respectively [33][92] Outlook - The cost pressures for industrial enterprises are expected to remain high, with ongoing monitoring of the "anti-involution" policy's impact on costs. The current profit pressure is largely due to rigid cost increases from downstream investments [4][48] - Future policies aimed at stabilizing growth in sectors like construction materials and steel are anticipated to gradually alleviate cost pressures, although attention should be paid to potential negative impacts from upstream price surges [4][48]