数据点评 | 9月利润再度上行，如何理解？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - In September, industrial profits showed a weak performance compared to previous years when adjusted for low base effects, with current cost rates remaining at historically high levels [2][8]. Overall Performance - In September, industrial profits continued to rise due to short-term factors like expenses, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6 percentage points to 22.5%. However, on a two-year compound basis, profit growth fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9%. Month-on-month, profits increased by only 1.1%, significantly lower than the same period last year (11.3%) [2][8]. - The profit margin continued to rise, primarily driven by short-term indicators, with a marginal increase of 9.5 percentage points to 11.6%. Other income items that previously boosted profits saw a decline in their contribution [2][8]. Revenue Analysis - Industrial revenue improved in September, with nominal revenue rising due to marginal improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI). The actual revenue growth rate, adjusted for price changes, increased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.4%, contributing an additional 0.3 percentage points to profit growth [2][16]. - By industry chain, the consumer chain saw a significant increase in actual revenue growth, rising by 2.2 percentage points to 8.1%. The petrochemical and metallurgy chains also showed improvements, with year-on-year increases of 1.3 and 0.1 percentage points to 3% and 4.8%, respectively [2][16]. Cost Structure - Industrial enterprises faced increasing cost pressures in September, with cost rates in the metallurgy and consumer chains at historically high levels. The overall cost rate was 85.4%, reflecting a relative high compared to recent years [3][22]. - The cost contribution to year-on-year profit growth decreased by 0.3 percentage points to -3.6%. The cost rates for the metallurgy and consumer manufacturing chains were 86.5% and 83.9%, respectively, both higher than the previous year [3][22]. Industry Insights - Industries with significant profit improvements were primarily influenced by revenue and expenses, although cost pressures remained substantial. Notably, the computer communication and automotive sectors saw profit increases of 3.5 and 2.8 percentage points to 4.5% and 2.2%, respectively [3][33]. - Other contributing sectors included general equipment, non-metallic products, and rubber and plastics, which collectively boosted overall profits. However, the automotive and computer communication sectors experienced year-on-year increases in operating costs of 4% and 3.8%, respectively [3][33]. Future Outlook - Industrial enterprises are expected to continue facing significant cost pressures, with the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies still to be seen. The current profit pressures are largely due to rigid cost increases from downstream investments [4][48]. - Looking ahead, policies aimed at stabilizing growth in sectors like construction materials and steel have been introduced, which, along with accelerated debt repayments, may gradually alleviate cost pressures. However, attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of upstream price surges on corporate profitability [4][48]. Regular Tracking - Industrial profits have been on the rise, with both volume and price improvements noted. In September, industrial profits increased by 1.2 percentage points to 21.6%, driven by a 1.3 percentage point rise in industrial added value to 6.5% [5][51]. - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises also showed signs of recovery, particularly in the cultural, educational, and entertainment sectors, as well as in petroleum and coal processing, with significant month-on-month increases [5][65].