欧元区PMI创一年新高——海外周报第111期

Key Points - The article discusses recent economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in inflation, manufacturing, and consumer confidence [5][15][16] - It notes a mixed economic outlook, with some indicators showing improvement while others indicate a slowdown [6][20] Group 1: Important Data Review - US September CPI increased by 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%, while core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, also below expectations [15] - October manufacturing PMI in the US rose to 52.2, indicating expansion, while the consumer confidence index fell to a five-month low of 53.6 [15] - Eurozone manufacturing PMI improved to 50, with service PMI reaching a 14-month high of 52.6, pushing the composite PMI to 52.2 [15][16] - Japan's exports rebounded in September, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, while core CPI rose by 2.9%, leading to expectations of potential interest rate hikes [16] Group 2: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index fell to 2.16 from 2.50, indicating a decline in economic activity [20] - Conversely, Germany's WAI index rose to 0.05 from -0.02, suggesting a recovery in economic activity [20] Group 3: Demand - US retail sales showed a year-on-year decline, with the Redbook commercial retail sales index at 5.0%, down from 5.9% [24] - Mortgage rates in the US decreased, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling to 6.19% from 6.27% [26] Group 4: Prices - Commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 302.98, up 3.3% week-on-week [30] - US gasoline prices decreased to $2.90 per gallon, down 1.2% from the previous week [30] Group 5: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have eased, with the US financial conditions index rising to 0.648 from 0.428 [33] - Offshore dollar liquidity improved, with narrowing swap points for both the yen and euro against the dollar [35][42] - The yield spread between 10-year bonds in Europe has narrowed, indicating a shift in market sentiment [37]