自动驾驶春秋的终点

Core Insights - The autonomous driving industry is transitioning from a "Spring and Autumn" period to a "Warring States" phase, indicating a shift from competitive acknowledgment to a struggle for dominance, where only leading players will survive [2][3]. Technical Route Dispute - The competition in autonomous driving has evolved from a ranking system to a life-and-death battle, with losers losing access to resources for continuous R&D [3]. - The 2022 Tesla AI Day II has significantly influenced the development direction of autonomous driving technology, leading to a divergence in technical paths among companies [4]. - Companies are exploring differentiated technical routes, with some abandoning LiDAR in favor of pure vision solutions, while others are experimenting with various mapping and planning algorithms [4][5]. Supplier Model Counterattack - As the technology experience reaches a plateau, the gap between leading autonomous driving teams is narrowing, leading to a price war in the automotive industry [6]. - Traditional automakers and smaller brands are increasingly opting for supplier solutions to reduce costs and enhance product capabilities, indicating a trend of "handing over their soul" to survive [6]. Data Barrier as a Key to Reversal - The current plateau in autonomous driving technology is attributed to the immaturity of data-driven solutions, with a heavy reliance on rule-based algorithms [7][9]. - The release of Tesla's FSD V14 highlights the importance of real-world data in enhancing autonomous driving AI, despite advancements in generative AI technologies [7][9].