Counterpoint Research·2025-10-28 04:26Core Insights - The global PC shipment volume increased by 8.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by the end of support for Windows 10 and strategic inventory adjustments related to changes in U.S. import tariffs [5][4] - Approximately 40% of the PC installed base is still running Windows 10, indicating a significant replacement cycle that is expected to drive market growth in the coming years [5][9] - Major OEMs capitalized on the replacement cycle, with several companies achieving double-digit year-on-year growth, while smaller brands saw flat or slightly declining shipments [7][8] Market Dynamics - Lenovo maintained its position as the global market leader with a shipment increase of 17.4%, the highest among the top six manufacturers [8] - HP ranked second with a 10.3% year-on-year increase, showcasing its strong penetration in the commercial market [8] - Dell experienced a slight decline of 0.9% year-on-year, reflecting cautious purchasing behavior among core enterprise clients [8] Future Trends - The rise of AI PCs is anticipated to significantly boost shipments starting in 2026, driven by the commercialization of next-generation processors designed for local AI computing [9][12] - Companies are beginning to procure AI-enabled PCs not out of immediate necessity but to prepare for future applications, indicating a shift towards "edge intelligence" as the next wave of replacement [11][12] - The 2026 CES is expected to be a pivotal event for the AI PC market, showcasing numerous local AI demonstrations and new product launches [12]