KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) 21世纪经济报道·2025-10-28 05:15Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped significantly, reflecting broader challenges in the Chinese liquor industry, with a notable decline in both revenue growth and market demand [1][3][4]. Price Trends - As of October 28, 2025, the wholesale reference price for 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has fallen to 1690 yuan, marking a decrease of 25 yuan from the previous day and the first time it has dropped below 1700 yuan [1][2]. - The price has decreased over 31% from its initial listing prices of 2220 yuan and 2255 yuan [1]. - The downward trend began in June 2025, with prices falling below key psychological thresholds, including 2000 yuan, 1900 yuan, and 1800 yuan [2]. Company Performance - Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, but the growth rate is the lowest in a decade [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 45.403 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.89% year-on-year growth [3]. - Revenue from Moutai liquor reached 75.589 billion yuan, up 10.24%, while series liquor revenue was 13.763 billion yuan, growing by 4.69% [3]. Industry Challenges - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with production among large-scale enterprises declining for the eighth consecutive year, down 5.8% in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - Approximately 60% of liquor companies are facing price inversion, and 59.7% have reported reduced operating profits, indicating a supply-demand imbalance and increasing channel pressures [4]. - The number of large-scale liquor enterprises has decreased to 887, down by over 100 compared to the previous year, leading to increased industry concentration [4]. Market Dynamics - Traditional peak consumption seasons have failed to reverse the market's downward trend, with sales during the dual festivals (National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival) declining by about 20% year-on-year [4][5]. - Major liquor companies, including Guizhou Moutai, are launching new products to adapt to changing market demands, such as commemorative editions and premium versions [5]. - Analysts predict that the industry will continue to face adjustments, with expectations of further performance declines in quarterly reports [5].