国泰海通 · 晨报1029｜买卖国债如何理解：从“长”计议

Core Viewpoint - The resumption of government bond trading by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is seen as a significant move to stabilize the bond market and provide a safety net for long-term interest rates, enhancing the attractiveness of long-term bond investments and trading opportunities [4][5]. Group 1: Short-term Market Reactions - The recent announcement of resuming government bond trading comes amid a strong stock market and stable bond market, indicating a potential response to the Fourth Plenary Session's directives [4]. - The bond market's short-term reaction shows that long-term bonds (10-year and 30-year) have seen yields drop by over 5 basis points, reflecting accumulated bullish sentiment rather than immediate PBOC actions [4]. - The strengthening of the RMB in the night market suggests that foreign investors may interpret the resumption of bond trading as an expansionary economic stimulus policy [4]. Group 2: Long-term Implications - The primary significance of resuming government bond trading is to provide insurance for the bond market, establishing an upper limit on long-term interest rates and improving the safety cushion for long-term bond investments [5]. - The PBOC's stance indicates a favorable overall bond market pricing, which opens up space for downward adjustments in long-term interest rates while maintaining control over potential disturbances from a strengthening stock market [5]. - In the context of increasing fiscal efforts and government leverage, the bond market's interest rate center should not rise too quickly, necessitating PBOC's bond purchases to support liquidity [5]. Group 3: Flexible Operations Post-Resumption - The operations of government bond trading post-resumption are expected to be more flexible, with uncertainty regarding the timing, direction, duration, and scale of transactions [6]. - The approach may resemble the reform of reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), allowing for adjustments based on market conditions rather than fixed strategies [6]. - Given the ample medium- to long-term funding already available, the release of significant funds through government bond trading is not anticipated, limiting the speculative value of short-term bonds [6]. Group 4: Broader Market Impact - The resumption of government bond trading is not only beneficial for the bond market but is also expected to support the stock market in the medium to long term [7]. - As a liquidity management tool, government bond trading can complement fiscal issuance, potentially benefiting equity assets under conditions of liquidity easing and fiscal stimulus [7]. - The short-term bond market is expected to validate the assessment of a "weak front, strong back" scenario for the fourth quarter, with the current 30-10 bond yield spread still having room for convergence [7].