备战新品种 | 月均价期货上市策略前瞻

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of monthly average price futures for three chemical products fills a gap in domestic average price risk management tools, facilitating smoother price fluctuations and better risk management for enterprises in international trade [4][5]. Group 1: Monthly Average Price Futures - The monthly average price futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene will be listed for trading starting from October 28, 2025, with night trading sessions [5]. - The listing benchmark prices for the contracts are based on the settlement prices on the listing date [5][7]. Group 2: Market Trends for Polyethylene and Polypropylene - The bearish trend for plastic and polypropylene futures continues, driven by declining cost support, new supply capacity, and insufficient demand [8]. - The price decline began in late November to early December 2024, with significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and subsequent destocking cycles [8]. - Despite a rebound in oil prices, the prices of plastic and polypropylene futures face technical pressure and have entered a downward trend again by the end of August [8]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - For polyethylene, rapid growth in domestic production due to capacity expansion is expected to persist throughout the year, with seasonal demand peaks in October [9]. - In polypropylene, while there is still strong demand in October, the seasonal demand decline is anticipated in November and December, with new capacity pressures expected to ease in the fourth quarter [9]. - Overall, both polyethylene and polypropylene prices are expected to remain in a bearish market, with short-term support from demand and geopolitical factors, but fundamental supply-demand pressures will likely lead to a "rise then fall" price trend [9]. Group 4: PVC Market Analysis - The PVC market is characterized by high supply and weak demand, with social inventory at historical highs [13]. - Despite ongoing losses in the PVC industry, some manufacturers are increasing production, with a projected increase of 220,000 tons this year [16]. - The PVC market faces potential export pressures due to anti-dumping measures from India, which could significantly impact future exports [17][18].