“十五五”建议稿的十大信号（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key points from the Central Committee's suggestions for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the analysis of risks and challenges, economic growth targets, structural optimization, and the importance of national security. Economic Analysis - The suggestions highlight the complex and severe external economic environment, shifting focus from "peace and development" to "intensified great power competition" and recognizing China's ability to navigate international challenges [3][36]. - Internally, the focus has shifted from reform and innovation to addressing insufficient effective demand and structural transformation challenges, such as employment pressures and income growth [3][36]. Key Goals - The main goals include maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, increasing the resident consumption rate, and enhancing the level of technological self-reliance and innovation [4][36]. - A new emphasis on national security has been introduced, aiming to strengthen the national security framework [4][36]. Modern Industrial System - The plan prioritizes the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, with a focus on enhancing global competitiveness in sectors like mining and metallurgy [5][37]. - It outlines four strategic emerging industries (new energy, new materials, aerospace, low-altitude economy) and six future industries (quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, sixth-generation mobile communication) [5][37]. Domestic Demand Expansion - Specific measures to boost domestic demand include increasing public service spending, expanding the supply of quality consumer goods, and enhancing investment in livelihood-related projects [5][37]. - The plan emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to consumption and investment to stimulate domestic circulation [5][37]. Technological Modernization - Technological modernization is defined as a crucial support for Chinese-style modernization, with a focus on seizing opportunities in the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation [6][38]. - The suggestions call for "extraordinary measures" to achieve breakthroughs in key core technologies across various sectors [6][38]. Reform and Market Construction - The construction of a unified national market is highlighted as a key reform area, aiming to eliminate barriers and promote fair competition [7][39]. - Financial and fiscal reforms are seen as essential for enhancing macroeconomic governance efficiency, with an emphasis on policy coordination [7][39]. Social Development - The suggestions focus on high-quality development in employment, income, real estate, and population, addressing structural employment issues and enhancing social security [8][40]. - Green development initiatives are emphasized, including the construction of a new energy system and the implementation of carbon reduction measures [8][40].