【广发宏观钟林楠】对央行恢复国债买卖操作的理解

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will resume open market operations for government bonds, indicating a shift towards stabilizing economic growth and enhancing liquidity in the banking system [1][2][4]. Group 1: Resumption of Government Bond Trading - The PBOC's resumption of government bond trading is primarily aimed at supplementing liquidity in the banking system and supporting fiscal efforts, with a total of 3.6 trillion yuan in MLF and reverse repos maturing in November and December [2][7]. - The decision aligns with the central government's goal to achieve economic and social development targets, reinforcing counter-cyclical adjustments [2][4]. - The 10-year government bond yield has increased from an average of 1.64% in January to 1.84% in October, indicating a correction in the expectation of unilateral interest rate declines [2][7]. Group 2: Future Operations and Market Impact - In the second half of 2024, the PBOC is expected to focus on purchasing short-term bonds, with two potential strategies: either continuing to buy short-term bonds or expanding purchases to other maturities like 5-year bonds [3][8]. - The resumption of bond trading sends a strong signal of prioritizing economic stability, especially as economic growth has slowed significantly in the third quarter [3][9]. - The effectiveness of the resumption will depend on whether broad fiscal measures can stimulate fixed asset investment and inflation, which are critical for sustaining a bull market driven by earnings [4][11]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The PBOC's actions are part of a broader strategy to ensure that fiscal and monetary policies work in tandem to stimulate demand and stabilize liquidity [3][9]. - The anticipated policies may include rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions to provide cheaper liquidity and lower financing costs for banks and the real economy [3][9]. - The market's short-term focus will likely remain on risk appetite, influenced by trade negotiations and industrial policy benefits, while the long-term outlook hinges on fiscal measures driving nominal growth [4][11].