国内海风的“翻倍周期”来了

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Beijing International Wind Energy Conference highlighted ambitious wind power installation targets for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiming for an annual increase of at least 120 million kilowatts, significantly exceeding previous expectations [2][4]. Group 1: Installation Targets - The "Wind Energy Beijing Declaration 2.0" sets a target of adding no less than 120 GW of new installed capacity annually during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with offshore wind power contributing at least 15 GW per year [2][4]. - By 2030, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China is expected to reach 1.3 billion kilowatts, a substantial increase from earlier projections [2][4]. - The declaration also outlines long-term goals, including a cumulative installed capacity of at least 2 billion kilowatts by 2035 and 5 billion kilowatts by 2060 [4]. Group 2: Current Installed Capacity - As of the end of 2024, China's cumulative wind power installed capacity reached 521 million kilowatts, with onshore wind accounting for 480 million kilowatts and offshore wind at 41.27 million kilowatts [5]. - In the first nine months of 2025, the country added 61.09 million kilowatts of new wind power capacity, with expectations for the total to reach 115 million kilowatts by the end of the year [5]. Group 3: Industry Consensus and Policy Signals - The conference serves as a consensus platform for the wind power industry, bringing together key stakeholders, which helps shape strong policy expectations and action signals [8][9]. - The significant increase in quantified targets reflects a consensus within the industry and regulatory bodies regarding future constraints and past bottlenecks [8][9]. - Recent policy changes, including expedited approvals for offshore wind projects, indicate that previous obstacles are being addressed, facilitating faster project implementation [9]. Group 4: Tax Incentives - A new tax policy effective from November 1, 2025, will provide a 50% VAT refund for electricity produced from offshore wind, continuing support for this sector while phasing out similar benefits for onshore wind [11][13]. - This tax incentive is expected to provide substantial financial relief for offshore wind developers, enhancing their investment confidence [12][13]. Group 5: Project Development and Tendering - The development cycle for offshore wind projects typically spans 2-3 years, with actual construction taking about one year once projects are approved [15]. - As of September 30, 2025, the total tendered capacity for wind power in China reached 116.41 GW, with offshore wind accounting for 6.886 GW, indicating a resilient growth despite a decrease in overall tendering volume [17]. - The successful tendering of projects is a positive indicator for future installed capacity, suggesting that the industry is moving from planning to actual implementation [18].