黄金的目标价：4600美元？量化模型找到了它的“锚”

Core Viewpoint - Gold has become one of the hottest investment assets in recent years, with significant price increases and a strong historical performance, particularly in the last decade [3][4]. Group 1: Gold's Performance - Over the past 10 years, the gold ETF has only experienced two years of decline, with the maximum annual drop being -7%. In 2025, gold prices surged by 45% [3][4]. - The annual performance of the Huazhong Gold ETF shows a consistent upward trend, with notable increases in 2024 (27.45%) and 2023 (16.34%) [4]. Group 2: Investment Logic of Gold - Various investment logics surrounding gold include its reflection of currency credit, its inverse relationship with real interest rates, its correlation with the US dollar index, its safe-haven attributes during economic downturns, and its performance during inflationary periods [6]. - The underlying anchor for gold pricing is the concept of currency credit, which has been a consistent factor over decades, even predicting historical peaks in gold prices [6][9]. Group 3: Quantitative Model and Valuation - The analysis suggests that the increase in US debt issuance should correlate with gold prices. If the US debt has increased 131 times since 1960, the fair value of gold would be approximately $4,636, while a 106 times increase since 1970 would suggest a fair value of around $3,742 [10][12]. - The two critical historical points for gold pricing are 1960 and 1971, marking the beginning of credit skepticism and the end of the Bretton Woods system, respectively [12][13]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Based on the quantitative model, the expected peak for gold prices in the current cycle is projected to be between $3,700 and $4,600, with current prices already surpassing the 1970 baseline of $3,742 and moving towards the 1960 baseline of $4,636 [13][14].