研报 | DRAM供应吃紧推高DDR5合约价，2026年获利有望超越HBM3e

Core Insights - The article discusses the anticipated increase in Server DRAM contract prices in Q4 2025, driven by the expansion of data centers by global cloud service providers (CSPs) [2][3] - TrendForce has revised its price forecast for Conventional DRAM from an initial increase of 8-13% to a new range of 18-23% [2][3] Price Forecasts - The revised price increase for Conventional DRAM is now projected at 18-23%, while HBM Blended is expected to rise by 23-28% [3] - The original forecast for Conventional DRAM was an increase of 8-13%, and for HBM Blended, it was 13-18% [3] Market Outlook for 2026 - Server shipment volume is expected to grow by approximately 4% in 2026, with CSPs adopting high-performance computing architectures, leading to increased DRAM capacity per server [5] - The strong demand for servers is anticipated to keep DDR5 contract prices on an upward trend throughout 2026, particularly in the first half of the year [5] Competitive Landscape - As of Q2 2025, there was a significant price gap of over four times between HBM3e and DDR5, with HBM3e providing better profitability for suppliers [6] - However, as DDR5 prices continue to rise, the price gap is expected to narrow significantly by 2026, with DDR5 profitability surpassing that of HBM3e starting in Q1 2026 [6] - Suppliers may increase the supply of Server DDR5 to solidify their profit base, while also potentially raising average selling prices (ASP) to balance product profitability [6]