今夜，美联储祭出“降息+停止缩表”组合拳？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, primarily due to concerns over labor market risks and liquidity pressures in the money market, while also potentially halting its balance sheet reduction plan [4][5][21]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, which is seen as almost certain due to increasing concerns about the labor market, despite ongoing inflation pressures [5][10]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is largely influenced by the need to address risks in the labor market, as indicated by recent comments from Fed Chair Powell [9][10]. - There is a notable division among FOMC members regarding the future outlook on interest rates, with some officials expressing concerns about inflation while acknowledging labor market risks [10][19]. Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Analysts warn that the U.S. economy is in a "low hiring, low firing" state, with a clear risk of evolving into a "no hiring, layoffs" scenario, which could jeopardize the Fed's goal of maximizing employment [15][16]. - The FOMC's September meeting minutes revealed that most participants acknowledged increased downside risks to employment, highlighting concerns over potential hiring cuts and layoffs [16][20]. - The labor market's health is being monitored through weekly unemployment claims data, which remains a key indicator [17]. Group 3: Balance Sheet Reduction - The Fed is likely to announce the cessation of its balance sheet reduction plan due to recent signs of liquidity tightening in the money market [21][22]. - Major banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, expect the Fed to take action to stabilize the financial system, especially after recent fluctuations in overnight financing rates [22][23]. - The Fed currently allows $5 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to roll off its balance sheet each month, but may shift to reinvesting all maturing Treasuries [26][27]. Group 4: Data Limitations - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a lack of critical economic data, making it difficult for the Fed to provide clear guidance on future policy paths [6][28]. - The absence of reliable employment and inflation data complicates the Fed's decision-making process, with expectations that Powell may avoid giving explicit forward guidance during the upcoming press conference [30][31]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed may still proceed with a rate cut in December, despite the data vacuum, as the market has fully priced in the likelihood of another cut [32][34].