美联储10月30日降息是大概率事件，对资本市场影响几何？｜国际

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of October, which is seen as a preventive measure to improve liquidity in the tech sector, although caution is advised regarding potential profit-taking due to "buy the expectation, sell the fact" behavior [1][2]. - The expected interest rate cut will bring the rate range down to 3.75% - 4.00%, with a total reduction of 75 basis points anticipated for the year [2]. - Four main reasons for the Fed's decision to cut rates include: a relatively weak job market with increased layoffs, easing inflation pressures as core CPI continues to decline, weakening economic momentum with a predicted -1.8% growth rate for Q3, and a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly in US-China relations [3]. Group 2 - The impact of the Fed's rate cut on the US capital markets includes short-term volatility in the stock market, but mid-term support for tech stocks due to improved liquidity, while value stocks in financial and industrial sectors are expected to show resilience [5]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to fall below 4.0%, with short-term rates being more certain, while long-term rates face limited downward space due to European fiscal expansion and expectations of Japanese rate hikes [6]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar is under pressure, benefiting non-US currencies, with the dollar index potentially dropping below 98, and the Chinese yuan expected to appreciate [7]. Group 3 - The Chinese market is expected to benefit from the Fed's rate cut, particularly in sectors like AI computing and semiconductors, with foreign capital inflows and liquidity easing [9]. - The yuan's exchange rate is likely to stabilize and rise due to a weaker dollar and narrowing US-China interest rate differentials, increasing foreign investment interest in yuan-denominated assets [9]. - Market participants are advised to closely monitor the Fed's rate decision and Powell's statements regarding December's policy for potential trading insights [9].