美联储即将退出“疫情救市模式”，9万亿缩表工程如何软着陆？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is set to conclude its quantitative tightening program, marking the end of large-scale financial market interventions initiated in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Fed aims for the market to operate independently while returning to traditional interest rate tools to stimulate or cool the economy [5][6]. Summary by Sections Quantitative Easing and Tightening - To counter the economic impact of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve implemented quantitative easing, purchasing trillions of dollars in securities to maintain low long-term interest rates, which expanded its balance sheet to nearly $9 trillion. Since 2022, the Fed has reversed these measures through quantitative tightening, reducing its balance sheet by $2.2 trillion [6]. Bank Reserves and Economic Signals - The Fed intends to reduce bank reserves from "ample" to "adequate," but determining the end point for quantitative tightening remains challenging. Currently, bank reserves account for about 10% of nominal GDP. The Fed is cautious to avoid a repeat of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, where a significant drop in bank reserves led to market volatility [7]. Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Experts suggest that the end of quantitative tightening may be interpreted by the market as a sign of the Fed's intention to boost the economy. Some traders might view this as another economic stimulus measure [7][8]. Concerns Over Liquidity - There are warnings that the current state of the money market indicates the Fed may be repeating past mistakes of excessive liquidity withdrawal. Some analysts argue that the Fed has allowed too much reserve to dissipate and should resume purchasing Treasury securities to replenish market liquidity [8]. Future Monetary Policy - The Fed has indicated that it does not currently see the need to increase its securities purchases, with predictions that it will not expand its balance sheet before the end of 2026. However, it will monitor year-end financing costs closely to respond to market pressures if necessary [8][9]. Caution in Future Interventions - The Fed's experience with previous rounds of bond purchases has made it more cautious about using quantitative easing as a monetary policy tool. Critics argue that such interventions leave a significant footprint in financial markets. The Fed is unlikely to face a situation requiring a return to quantitative easing in the foreseeable future, as current economic conditions are more likely to present inflationary pressures rather than deflationary ones [9].