国泰海通 · 晨报1030｜策略、新股

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the accelerating rise in memory prices and the pressure on durable goods consumption, indicating a mixed performance in the macroeconomic landscape [4]. Group 1: Economic Trends - AI data center construction continues to show strong demand, driving growth in technology hardware and accelerating memory price increases [4][6]. - The real estate and construction sectors remain weak, with prices for steel and building materials showing a downward trend [4][6]. - Overall consumer spending is weak, with the effects of national subsidies being exhausted, leading to pressure on durable goods consumption [4][5]. Group 2: Real Estate and Durable Goods - Real estate sales are at a low point, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities down by 23.2% year-on-year, and first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities seeing declines of 30.5%, 19.6%, and 20.4% respectively [5]. - Retail sales of durable goods, such as passenger cars, are also under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 3.0% noted for the week of October 13-19, 2025 [5]. - The air conditioning industry is experiencing significant declines in both domestic and foreign sales, with production down by 21.2% and 13.8% respectively [5]. Group 3: Technology and Manufacturing - The price of DRAM memory chips has increased significantly, with a month-on-month rise of 11.7%, driven by strong demand from overseas AI server markets [6]. - The construction and building materials sector is facing challenges, with weak demand leading to price fluctuations in steel and building materials [6]. - Manufacturing activity has seen a slight increase in operating rates, with improved hiring intentions among companies [6]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Logistics - There is a slight recovery in long-distance travel demand, with a 5.5% month-on-month increase in the Baidu migration index [7]. - Freight demand remains stable, with logistics activity increasing as the "Double Eleven" shopping festival approaches [7]. - Port throughput has decreased, despite rising shipping prices [7]. Group 5: New Stock Market Insights - The new stock issuance pace remains steady, with first-day average gains for new stocks on the main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market at 199.27%, 297.09%, and 149.17% respectively [11]. - The average net asset of new stock funds in Q3 2025 is 2.97 billion, with a median return of 4.88% across all new stock funds [12]. - The top five sectors for new stock funds are electronics, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, pharmaceuticals, and communications, with noticeable reductions in bank holdings [13].