国泰海通｜交运：快递单价降幅收窄，反内卷持续扩散

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a narrowing decline in express delivery prices in September, indicating a stronger-than-expected effort to combat "involution" in the industry, leading to a temporary easing of competitive pressure. The outlook remains positive for leading express delivery companies with confirmed performance growth and potential valuation recovery opportunities in e-commerce logistics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In September 2025, the total express delivery volume increased by 12.7% year-on-year, with SF Express leading the growth at 31.81% [1]. - The total express delivery volume for the first nine months of 2025 reached 1,450.8 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.2% [1]. - The e-commerce express delivery volumes for YTO, Yunda, and Shentong in September 2025 were up 13.6%, 3.6%, and 9.5% year-on-year, respectively [1]. Group 2: Market Concentration - The market concentration in the express delivery industry continues to increase, with the CR8 for the first nine months of 2025 at 86.9, up 1.7 year-on-year, indicating a notable rise in the market share of leading companies [2]. - In Q3 2025, the market shares for YTO, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu were 15.6%, 13.0%, 13.2%, and 11.3%, respectively, with leading companies showing an increase in market share compared to Q2 [2]. Group 3: Pricing Trends - The express delivery industry saw a revenue increase of 7.2% year-on-year in September 2025, while the average revenue per ticket decreased by 4.9% [3]. - The average revenue per ticket for YTO, Yunda, and Shentong in September 2025 showed year-on-year increases of 1.38%, 0.50%, and 4.95%, respectively [3]. - The decline in average revenue per ticket has narrowed, suggesting a reduction in price competition due to regulatory efforts against "involution" [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The article suggests that the ongoing "anti-involution" measures will effectively ease competitive pressures in the industry, with expectations for profitability recovery in e-commerce logistics in the second half of the year [4]. - The future profitability elasticity will depend on the sustainability of price increases, with a focus on regulatory oversight from the postal administration [4].