出口价格能带动PPI回升吗？——基于历史二者背离复盘的启示

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical divergence between export prices and PPI, concluding that they will eventually synchronize, with the driving factors being external demand and exchange rate fluctuations. If external demand continues to rise, PPI will align with export prices; otherwise, export prices may lack sustained upward momentum and revert to PPI levels [2][66]. Summary by Sections Common Factors Driving Export Price Recovery - There have been four historical cycles of divergence between export prices and PPI, with most instances showing export prices converging towards PPI, except for one cycle where PPI aligned with export prices [4][19]. - The divergence is influenced by four potential factors: demand, supply, pricing settlement, and domestic factors [5][22]. Unique Factors in the Current Cycle - The current cycle is significantly impacted by tariff adjustments, leading to structural changes in China's export patterns, both in terms of regions and product types [12][43]. - Exports to low-price regions have significantly decreased, particularly to the U.S., while exports to high-price regions have increased [13][45]. - The share of high-priced goods in exports has risen, with the equipment manufacturing sector seeing a notable increase in export share [14][50]. Conclusion: Who Leads, Export Prices or PPI? - The article concludes that the synchronization of export prices and PPI depends on sustained external demand. Current conditions show some recovery in external demand, but the future trajectory remains uncertain [65][66].