鲍威尔发布会实录：12月再降息并非板上钉钉，委员会分歧大，就业市场仍在降温，通胀短期有上行压力（附全文）

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points and announced the end of balance sheet reduction starting December 1. There is significant disagreement among committee members regarding future rate cuts, indicating that further cuts are not guaranteed [1][4][12]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The prospect of another rate cut in December is uncertain, with some members suggesting a pause in rate changes [3][13]. - The composition of the balance sheet remains a long-term process, with adjustments expected to be gradual [3]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, but there is no significant increase in job market weakness, with job vacancies remaining stable [3][7]. Inflation Insights - Inflation pressures are still present, with the September CPI showing a more moderate increase than expected. Core PCE inflation, excluding tariffs, is estimated to be around 2.3% to 2.4% [3][9][27]. - Tariffs are contributing to rising prices in certain goods, leading to overall inflation increases [9][10]. - The overall PCE price index increased by 2.8% over the past 12 months, with core PCE also rising by 2.8% [9][27]. Economic Activity - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with GDP growth for the first half of the year at 1.6%, down from 2.4% the previous year [5][46]. - Consumer spending has shown strength, which may lead to better-than-expected economic growth [6][44]. - Investment in equipment and intangible assets continues to grow, while housing market activity remains weak [7]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is experiencing a gradual cooling, with a notable decline in labor supply impacting employment [7][8]. - The unemployment rate remains relatively low, but job growth has slowed significantly since the beginning of the year [7][36]. - There are concerns about rising risks to employment, particularly in light of recent layoffs announced by major companies [8][32]. Balance Sheet Management - The Federal Reserve will stop balance sheet reduction as it has reached a level deemed sufficient for "ample reserves" [14][18]. - The balance sheet has shrunk by approximately $2.2 trillion over the past three and a half years, with its size relative to nominal GDP decreasing from 35% to about 21% [14][19]. - The Fed plans to reinvest proceeds from maturing agency securities into short-term Treasury bills to adjust the balance sheet structure [15][24]. Market Reactions and Future Considerations - The market has priced in expectations for further rate cuts, but the Fed emphasizes that such actions are not predetermined [15][22]. - The committee's discussions reflect a range of opinions on the economic outlook, with some members advocating for a pause to assess the situation further [16][35]. - The potential impact of government shutdowns on economic data and decision-making processes is acknowledged, with a cautious approach suggested in the absence of reliable data [21][31].