中金：美联储如期降息，鹰派占上风

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October aligns with market expectations, but Chairman Powell's hawkish comments indicate that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, suggesting a growing internal consensus to pause rate cuts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.0%, still above the estimated neutral rate of 3.5%, indicating that monetary policy remains relatively tight [5]. - Two officials opposed the rate cut: one advocated for a 50 basis point cut, while another preferred to maintain the current rate, highlighting increasing internal divisions within the Fed [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Employment growth is slowing, with initial jobless claims and private sector indicators showing a deceleration, but there is no sign of a rapid decline in the labor market [4]. - Inflation remains significantly above the Fed's target, with the PCE inflation rate estimated at 2.8% in September, up from 2.7% the previous month, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The pace of future rate cuts may slow, potentially shifting from "cutting at every meeting" to "cutting once per quarter," as the Fed approaches the neutral rate and inflation remains stubbornly high [5]. - The effectiveness of rate cuts is expected to be limited due to a diminished refinancing effect, as many homeowners locked in low rates in 2021, reducing the incentive for refinancing [5]. Group 4: Quantitative Tightening - The Fed announced it will end quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, stopping the reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings and rolling over maturing principal, while continuing to limit MBS reductions [6]. - The decision to end QT is seen as a technical adjustment to address liquidity concerns and manage the average duration of its asset portfolio, reflecting a desire to normalize monetary policy [6].