繁华落幕，人形机器人或将进入寒冬

Core Viewpoint - The humanoid robot industry is facing significant challenges and may be entering a period of stagnation due to unmet expectations and technological limitations [4][10][20]. Industry Performance - International companies, such as Tesla, are experiencing setbacks; for instance, Tesla's Gen2 production has been halted due to overheating and durability issues, and Gen3 has been delayed until Q1 of next year [5][20]. - Domestic companies are exhibiting a facade of prosperity, with many orders being mere internal transfers or non-deliverable framework orders [7]. Technological Limitations - Current advancements in AI technology have not yet translated into the expected level of general intelligence in humanoid robots, raising doubts about the industry's future [10][11]. - Specific applications, such as sorting packages and folding clothes, demonstrate limited generalization capabilities, which could lead to failures in more complex environments like homes [14][17]. - Video learning, while touted as a future solution, remains largely in the research phase, with no company successfully demonstrating its practical application for dexterous tasks [19]. Potential Upsides - There are two uncertain factors that could influence the humanoid robot industry's trajectory: 1. The performance of Tesla's Optimus Gen3, which is seen as a potential game-changer; however, if it fails to meet expectations, it could lead to widespread pessimism about the industry [20][22]. 2. The success of companies like Yushun, which have focused on optimizing hardware and exploring entertainment applications, suggesting that even in a downturn, certain segments may continue to thrive [26]. Conclusion - The current state of the humanoid robot industry reflects a period of reevaluation and potential technological advancement, similar to the early challenges faced by the electric vehicle sector [27][28].