美联储如期降息25个基点：申万期货早间评论-20251030

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut, aligning with market expectations [1][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10 to 2 in favor of the rate cut, with dissenting opinions advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [1]. - The Fed announced it will stop balance sheet reduction starting December 1, reinvesting maturing agency debt into Treasury securities [1]. - The Fed's statement indicated that while employment growth has slowed and unemployment has risen slightly, it remains low as of August [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the domestic futures market saw most commodities rise, with coking coal increasing over 2% and PVC and coking coal rising over 1% [1]. - The U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points and the North China 50 index rising over 8% [3][12]. - The market's liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, with increased equity asset allocation anticipated from residents and potential inflows from external funds due to the Fed's rate cut and RMB appreciation [3][12]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have experienced significant corrections following the Fed's rate cut, with market pricing adjustments reflecting the anticipated rate changes [2][19]. - Coking coal prices are supported by strong demand from the steel industry, with recent data showing a slight increase in production and a decrease in inventory levels [4][23]. - The copper market is facing tight supply conditions, with ongoing high growth in smelting output despite a challenging demand environment [20]. Group 4: International Relations and Economic Indicators - Geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat, with recent U.S.-China talks yielding basic consensus on addressing mutual concerns, which may influence market sentiment positively [2][8]. - The Indian central bank has accelerated the repatriation of gold reserves, reflecting a broader trend of increasing gold holdings by central banks globally amid rising distrust in the financial system [9].