降息25个基点！美联储主席表示12月降息并非板上钉钉｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut in 2025, following a previous cut in September. This decision reflects internal divisions within the Fed regarding future monetary policy direction [3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the interest rate was widely anticipated by the market, despite internal disagreements among officials regarding the extent of the cut [3]. - Two officials opposed the 25 basis point cut, with one advocating for a 50 basis point reduction to expedite policy easing [3]. - The Fed's internal divisions between hawkish and dovish perspectives are becoming more pronounced, indicating uncertainty in future rate cuts [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate. Recent indicators align with these trends [4]. - The latest data shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September increased by 3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, while the core CPI rose by 3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed's October policy statement did not provide guidance on the December monetary policy path, leaving uncertainty regarding future rate cuts [4]. - The Fed's dot plot suggests the possibility of three rate cuts within the year, with December potentially being the last opportunity for a cut [4]. - Following Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks, market expectations for a December rate cut diminished significantly [5].